State of Origin – Game 2 preview

The biggest game in rugby league is entering the second instalment tonight and for the Blues yet again it is a must win as the New South Welshmen desperately try and keep the State of Origin series alive.

What happened last time?
Game one was the same old story for the most part; Queensland dominated the ruck, possession and the moments that counted.

However, the Blues can take a huge amount of belief from the defensive effort that they put up, particularly in the first 30 minutes. This shows they can stick solid when they put their minds to it.

The Blues also found some space and vulnerability on the Queensland right edge, which they were able to exploit twice.

It can be argued that the Queensland halves were quiet, but the New South Wales halves were a new pairing and took a while to find their feet, with Soward extremely quiet in the first 20-30 minutes.

Who’ll win?
Tonight it is all on the line. It is really do or die for the Blues.

If they want to try and (postpone) the Queensland claim to another series win, I believe this is the side that can keep it close.

We won’t see the same lopsided possession as we saw a few weeks ago in Queensland. The refs need to give the Blues a hand, after some shocking calls last time out.

There is a lot of talk about the difference in the forward pack sizes. There is a big difference with the Blues not having as many big men as Queensland, nor the experience of Queensland’s heavy hitters.

It is a selection risk, one that will either be a flop or a massive reward.

Every man and his dog knows the Blues will be looking for their forwards to play fast football but it’s how the forwards approach the defence that will have a huge impact on this game.

The Blues’ forwards need to match it with the Maroons’ forwards and keep them from making easy metres up the middle of the park.

With the weather set in and the track bound to be wet, despite it’s great drainage, this will play into the Blues hands.

Big men don’t turn as fast as a ballet dancer; more like the Titanic.

I expect to see the Blues move the ball around a bit, inside passes are the key, to keep the Queenslanders turning and slipping.

The Blues halves have an extremely important role to play tonight. Soward barely touched the ball first half of game one, which was not good enough for one of the best tactical and positional kickers in the game.

He grew into his role during the game which is promising.

If Soward can keep kicking early in the set, having Slater, Yow Yeh and Boyd chasing and starting sets from deep in their half.

The Blues back line looked more dangerous than the Maroons for the first time for a while last match. The men coming in look to have the potential to keep this rolling, although the Maroons have brought in Greg Inglis and have kept the faith in their line up.

This isn’t where it’ll be won – it’ll be solely decided on the forwards performance. Whoever makes the least mistakes and plays the smartest positional football will be the winner in this one.

The New South Wales Blues will send this to a Game three blockbuster.

State against state, mate against mate: who will win game one? Join the State of Origin great debate

With both Origin teams now named and buddying up in camp, foxsports.com.au's Christopher Sutton and Christopher Boyd tout the cases for their respective picks for the series opener - mate against mate

•Wednesday 25 May 2011 - State of Origin Game One – BRISBANE

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•Wednesday 15 June 2011 - State of Origin Game Two – SYDNEY
•Wednesday 6 July 2011 - State of Origin Game Three – BRISBANE

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In the Blues corner is Sutton; the Maroons have Boyd.

Read their conversation as both weigh in with why New South Wales or Queensland will win game one at Suncorp Stadium on May 25.

Christopher Sutton says: Boyd C, the teams are in and here’s the scoop: the drought is finally over for my beloved Blues. Finally a New South Wales side that refuses to play stars out of their familiar roles; we’ve got so many standout players at key positions that Sticky couldn’t even fit them all in. That has to be scary for the Maroons, who find themselves with quite the opposite predicament; their stars are dropping like flies - Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges couldn't even hobble their way to the team photo. Dane Nielsen? Jharal Yow Yeh? Please!

Christopher Boyd says: Mr Sutton, I have been telling you all year that the Maroons just have to turn up to make it six straight; and a quick glance over the two teams leaves me with no reason to change my mind! You speak of standouts in key positions yet, in leaving out Jarryd Hayne and Jamal Idris, the Blues omit their two biggest strike players in the NRL. Please explain? And don't worry about the debutants - Nielsen will have a third of his Melbourne Storm teammates alongside him while Yow Yeh has already represented the Kangaroos - something that obviously carries more weight north of the border.

CS: I can’t deny there are same curious exclusions but in saying that there is only one player who made the NSW side undeservedly, that being Jason King. The rest have all come through a competitive Origin trial week in, week out in the NRL. Look at Jamie Soward, owner of the best boot in the game. He has been scrapping away for this chance for years now and he will go in as one of seven defending premiers with a winning mentality. This is a new era for the Blues, not dissimilar to what the Maroons embarked upon five years ago.

CB: I am the first to admit that Ricky Stuart has brought a positive spirit to this current crop. Unfortunately for NSW fans, what he can't inject into the Blues side is playing experience. The spine of Dugan, Soward, Pearce and Ennis compiles just seven Origins between them. In the Maroons corner, you have Slater, Lockyer, Thurston and Smith with a total of 76 games for Queensland. You don't pick combinations - you build them. Your point about Soward's kicking is valid; however, the Maroons already have three of the best kickers in the game. You must fear a Queensland ambush on the diminutive Dragons No.6?

CS: I was waiting for you to mention the Maroons' spine, mainly because it is the only advantage they have left. Queensland possesses an all-star No.1, No.7 and No.9 plus an aging, though talismanic No.6 - I'll even throw Boyd in there (and give Mal credit for making the exact decision Sticky failed to make with Hayne). So we know the three or four men the Blues need to shut down. The Maroons have no advantage in the forward pack, with NSW carrying old-school hurt machines like Gallen, Bird and Snowden, plus the toughest rake in the comp in Ennis. They’re Origin prototypes, and they'll be on hand to protect Soward.

CB: We must be reading each other's minds, because I had my retort to your NSW scare campaign ready to fire. It's true that the bash brothers are hard enough, but my question to you is: are they smart enough? We saw NSW bludgeon their way to a consolation victory in game three in 2009, only to be wiped off the floor in the 2010 when they tried the tough stuff again. It's a good NSW pack, but tries are what the Blues will need. Jennings hasn't crossed for an NRL try this year! If you look at the scores for the past few series, the Maroons seem to be able to put points on at will. Do you anticipate a high-scoring opener?

CS: It will be high scoring if the Blues are forced to chase. We've made a couple of losses look close in recent years after rallying to play catch up, though that will be tougher without Hayne. Soward has shown us how easily he can set a backline alight with the Dragons lately and in Jennings and Uate we have the two best strike weapons in either set of three-quarters, I honestly believe that.

People who point to Jennings’s zero NRL tries in 2011 aren’t watching closely; he’s been busy creating opportunities for a Panthers team who fail to convert. There’s a balance in this side, a balance of power and pizzazz and I'm genuinely confident the Blues will take game one in a classic Origin opener.

CB: You've mounted a strong case, Mr Sutton, but when Queensland run onto Suncorp Stadium on May 25 it’s going to take more than pizzazz to stop the Maroons on hallowed turf. The thought of Matt Scott steamrolling through the middle flanked by Sam Thaiday and Nate Myles should strike fear into the five Blues debutants. If the visitors are still in it after 60 minutes - though I am doubtful they will be - then it will be intriguing to see how Soward and Pearce handle the pressure of having Queensland fans baying for their blood. It's going to be a classic series opener whichever way you lean, but I'll be putting my money on Queensland to canter home 31-18. Enough from us, though. Let's throw this open to the fans!

Join the debate by telling us which team will win the State of Origin series opener next Wednesday night!

Queensland Origin I Line-up.

1. Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)

2. Darius Boyd (St George Illawarra)

3. Dane Nielsen (Melbourne Storm)

4. Willie Tonga (North Queensland)

5. Jharal Yow Yeh (Brisbane Broncos)

6. Darren Lockyer (c) (Brisbane Broncos)

7. Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)

8. Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)

9. Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)

10. Petero Civoniceva (Penrith)

11. Nate Myles (Sydney Roosters)

12. Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)

13. Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast Titans)

Bench: Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm), Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos), Jacob Lillyman (Warriors), Ben Hannant (Brisbane Broncos). 18th man: Dave Taylor (South Sydney).

NSW Origin I Line-up

1. Josh Dugan (Canberra)

2. Brett Morris (St George Illawarra)

3. Michael Jennings (Penrith)

4. Mark Gasnier (St George Illawarra)

5. Akuila Uate (Newcastle Knights)

6. Jamie Soward (St George Illawarra)

7. Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)

8. Jason King (Manly)

9. Michael Ennis (Canterbury-Bankstown)

10. Kade Snowden (Cronulla)

11. Beau Scott (St George Illawarra)

12. Greg Bird (Gold Coast Titans)

13. Paul Gallen (c) (Cronulla)

Bench: Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra), Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra), Tim Mannah (Parramatta), Dean Young (St George Illawarra).